Saturday, March 18, 2006

 
# posted by Rich @ 8:04 PM

Malaysia: pre-race

Bersedia untuk berlumba. That means get ready for the race...

Giancarlo Fisichella looks likely to have a good shot at victory in the Malaysian GP, starting from pole position. The last time he started from pole, he also won the race (Australia 2005). However, he will need an aggressive strategy, because there are some VERY fast people behind him.

Button in second will be looking to score his first victory but must make a better start than he did in Bahrain. He will be starting on the dirty side of the track though, and he will have to watch out for Rosberg and Webber alongside and behind him respectively.

The McLarens are poised in position for a good race. If they resort to a one-stopper like they did in Bahrain (which seems likely given their raw speed and the fact that they weren't particularly fast in session 3 of qualifying) then they could easily take the victory here. Indeed, I am predicting Raikkonen for the victory.

Alonso will have his work cut out, starting in 7th. Apparently a mistake with the fuel rig in qualifying resulted in two loads of fuel being loaded onboard, compromising his qualifying pace. This has the potential to really upset his race, because he will be starting heavy. On the other hand, he may choose to extend his first stint, and one-stop. This is conditional on his choice of tyre compound, however.

Further down the grid, Michael Schumacher, and Felipe Massa will be looking to advance quickly through the field. Both the Ferrari drivers have engine change penalties, and will be starting low down on the grid. The Ferraris are fast, and they might be able to muster some points from their weekend. However, there is a big question mark over the reliability of the Ferrari engines.

So, what to watch out for in the race? Look out for Raikkonen for the win, Rosberg, Fisichella, Button, and Montoya to battle it out for second. Watch out for Alonso making a flying start from down in 7th, and to get to the first corner in 5th place. Watch out for Michael Schumacher and Felipe Massa to move through the field, but watch out for Ferrari engine reliability - both from the Ferraris and the Red Bulls.

The one-stop pit window should be laps 26-30, two stops laps 16-19 and laps 35-38, and three stops laps 13-15, 27-29, and 41-43. I expect the McLarens to make 1 stop; Alonso may join them and try to modify his strategy on the fly; some of the drivers lower down the order who incurred engine change penalties may also follow suit. I expect most of the rest of the drivers and teams to aim for two stops. I would have anticipated the Toyotas going for 3 stops, using softer tyres to alleviate their tyre temperature problems. However, their performance in qualifying seems to scotch that idea.

My predicitions: Raikkonen, Alonso, Montoya, Button, Fisichella, Rosberg, M Schumacher, Webber

Bersedia untuk berlumba!

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