Saturday, March 11, 2006

 
# posted by Rich @ 12:21 PM

Bahrain qualifying: report

In a case of "plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose", Michael Schumacher scored the first pole position of the year, and his 65th, to tie Ayrton Senna's all-time pole position record. It is Schumacher's and Ferrari's first pole position since Hungary last year. In a double celebration for Ferrari, Felipe Massa qualified second on the grid, to give Ferrari it's first front row lockout since Hungary 2004.

Incredibly, Massa was just 47 thousandths slower than Schumacher's pole time of 1:31.431. It seems, initially, that Massa and Schumacher are more evenly matched than many anticipated, although fuel loads may be a contributing factor.

The other big story of qualifying was Kimi Raikkonen's failure to set a time due to a suspension failure on his first flying lap. The right rear of the Finn's McLaren disintegrated, breaking off the rear wing. As Raikkonen slid to a halt, the session was red-flagged. Raikkonen will now start from the back of the grid, in 22nd place.

It is early in the season, but this could be disastrous for Raikkonen, whose 2005 championship evaporated because of too many mechanical failures. McLaren will have to ensure perfect reliability this year if they and Raikkonen are to stand any chance of capturing the title.

The rest of the top ten slots for tomorrow's race are filled by Button, Alonso, Montoya, Barrichello, Webber, Klein, Fisichella, and Heidfeld. Really, there are no surprises here, except perhaps the absence of the Toyotas - Trulli wasn't fast enough to get into the last session of qualifying; Ralf wasn't even quick enough to progress from the first session.

The new qualifying format was certainly interesting, and not as confusing (to me at least) as I had predicted. However, there are some quirks of the new system, notably that fast times set on low fuel in sessions 1 and 2 might not be fast enough to get into the top ten (session 3) but are faster than times posted in session 3 by the runners using race fuel loads. To illustrate this point, Villeneuve set a session 2 time of 1:32.456 - 11th fastest, thus he was ineligible for session 3. However, that time would have been good enough for 6th on the grid.

There were some further anomalies within the session 3 drivers, where their session 2 times were MUCH better than the session 3 times (the prime example being Alonso, who's session 2 time of 1:31.215 was faster than Schumacher's pole time).

The difference, of course, is because of the fuel loads people were running (remember, the session 3 runners run with race fuel, with re-fuelling to the starting fuel level allowed after the session), and by comparing the session 2 and session 3 times, it should be easy to figure out who is running what fuel load.

However, the Ferraris look like they are trying to be cunning - they were 6 tenths slower in session 2 than in session 3, thus disguising their race fuel loads. Indeed they may be starting with significantly less fuel than their rivals, and may adopt a 3-stop strategy; McLaren, Renault, and Honda may have adopted a heavier starting fuel load and a 2-stop strategy. We shall find out tomorrow.

But for now, Ferrari are resurgent. It seems to be no coincidence that, with tyre changes now reinstated, that Bridgestone again have the advantage, and it seems that Ferrari have been elevated back to their 2004 form.

Like I said - plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!

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